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Storm Prediction Center Forecast


RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 24 22:16:02 UTC 2017

No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 24 22:16:02 UTC 2017.


SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Jun 24 22:16:02 UTC 2017

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 24 22:16:02 UTC 2017.


SPC Jun 24, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be
possible over portions of the Southeast and possibly the Upper
Midwest this afternoon. Other storms capable of isolated severe hail
and strong winds are expected over parts of New Mexico.

...Mid-afternoon Update...

No appreciable changes to 1630z update.

Strong boundary-layer heating across western NM has contributed to
significant buoyancy across portions of the southern Rockies.
Convection is beginning to mature along the western fringe of higher
quality moisture where deep-layer shear is more than adequate for
sustaining updrafts.  This region should remain convectively active
into the evening hours.

Scattered thunderstorms have developed along a pre-frontal zone of
low-level confluence from central GA into coastal NC. Gusty winds
may be noted with this activity until buoyancy is overturned later
this afternoon.

..Darrow.. 06/24/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

...Carolinas/Southeast States...
Ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, a moist warm sector with
low 70s F dewpoints resides across the region. The atmosphere will
become moderately unstable especially over the Carolinas with 1500
J/kg MLCAPE as the boundary layer warms. Storms are expected to
redevelop along the front and over the higher terrain and intensify
as they intercept the moist and unstable warm sector. On the
southern fringe of moderate winds aloft, 30-35 kt effective shear
will support multicells and weak mid-level updraft rotation. These
storms may produce a few instances of strong to damaging wind gusts
as they develop eastward through the Carolinas this afternoon into
early evening.

...New Mexico/far southern Colorado...
Widespread low clouds may largely persist across eastern
NM/southeast CO today. However, diabatic warming over the higher
terrain with steep lapse rates will likely foster modest MLCAPE and
the development of storms during the afternoon especially across
interior NM. Wind profiles are sufficient for some mid-level updraft
rotation with storms developing over northern NM and possibly far
southern CO. Otherwise, multicells with isolated downburst winds and
hail are expected from later this afternoon into early evening.

...Upper Midwest...
While boundary-layer moisture will be quite meager ahead of a
southeastward-moving cold front, low-level moisture (40s F surface
dewpoints) may be sufficient for some low-topped thunderstorms near
the front. Steep lapse rates and relatively strong low/mid-level
westerly winds may be sufficient for some convectively enhanced wind
gusts this afternoon through around sunset.

...South-central Texas...
Thunderstorms will persist/redevelop today largely along
consolidated outflow and zones of differential heating under the
influence of weak forcing and weak winds aloft. While a few
pulse-type storms capable of strong downdraft winds may occur this
afternoon/early evening with a moist/unstable environment, the
overall severe potential is expected to remain limited.

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SPC Jun 24, 2017 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY
OF NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with hail or wind are possible over New
Mexico into southeast Colorado and far west Texas Sunday afternoon.

...New Mexico and Vicinity...

Large-scale upper ridge is expected to hold across the southwestern
US into the day2 period with the western edge of stronger
northwesterly flow across the High Plains as far south as the TX
Panhandle. Richer moisture has been shunted toward the Gulf Coast
with favorable upslope flow across NM forcing moisture deep into the
southern Rockies. Strong diurnal heating across southern CO/NM will
undoubtedly aid convective development by mid-late afternoon as
convective temperatures are breached in combination with orographic
influences. Scattered thunderstorms should develop within a sheared
regime favorable for rotating storms; although, surface-6km bulk
shear would suggest any supercells that evolve across this region
should remain primarily weak. Even so, hail/wind may accompany this
activity and there is some chance for a convective complex to evolve
over eastern NM after dark as thunderstorms encounter a weak LLJ
across the southern High Plains.

..Darrow.. 06/24/2017

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