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Storm Prediction Center Forecast


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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 342

WW 342 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 182355Z - 190500Z
      
WW 0342 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 342
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
655 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southwestern Kansas
  The Oklahoma Panhandle
  The western and northern Texas Panhandle

* Effective this Saturday night from 655 PM until Midnight CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Storm mergers should lead to some upscale growth into
southwestern Kansas this evening, while another band of storms will
move east-southeastward from New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. 
Isolated large hail will be possible with the initial storms in
Kansas with marginal supercell structures, and a few damaging gusts
will be the main concern with the linear convection through late
evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of
Garden City KS to 55 miles east southeast of Tucumcari NM. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 341...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
31020.

...Thompson

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341

WW 341 SEVERE TSTM CO NM 181845Z - 190200Z
      
WW 0341 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 341
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM MDT Sat Aug 18 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Colorado
  Northeast New Mexico

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM
  until 800 PM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop off the mountains of
south-central Colorado and northeast New Mexico, and track eastward
across the watch area this afternoon.  Large hail and damaging winds
will be possible in the strongest cells.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast
of Limon CO to 40 miles southeast of Las Vegas NM. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.

...Hart

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 342 Status Reports

WW 0342 Status Updates
      
WW 0342 Status Image

STATUS FOR WATCH 0342 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341 Status Reports

WW 0341 Status Updates
      
WW 0341 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 341

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE SAF TO
40 E LVS TO 30 NNW TCC TO 45 SSW CAO TO 25 S CAO TO 25 SSE SPD TO
25 S LAA TO 45 NNW LAA TO 10 WNW ITR TO 30 NW GLD.

..JEWELL..08/19/18

ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...ABQ...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 341 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

COC009-017-061-063-099-190240-

CO 
.    COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BACA                 CHEYENNE            KIOWA               
KIT CARSON           PROWERS             


NMC021-047-190240-

NM 
.    NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HARDING              SAN MIGUEL          


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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SPC MD 1321

MD 1321 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MD 1321 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1321
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Areas affected...the southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 182334Z - 190130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to continue developing southeastward
toward the OK/TX panhandle region, with an overall increase in
coverage through evening. A few storms may produce severe wind or
hail.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms currently exist from western KS into
northeast NM, ahead of a weak cold front and shortwave trough aloft.
The area is characterized by a moderately unstable air mass with
modest lapse rates aloft, and weakly veering winds with height.
Storm mode has been mixed through early evening, but a more linear
structure has formed over northeast NM, which will be entering into
the western Panhandles shortly. Other slow-moving cells persist over
western KS, with isolated severe hail cores noted on radar.

As the shortwave trough continues to shift southeast, lift will be
maintained over the region. Visible satellite imagery shows a
substantial CU field over the TX/OK Panhandles, indicative of little
if any inhibition and likely supportive of continued storm
formation/sustenance. As such, a watch will be considered.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 08/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35850475 36790370 37670274 38360237 38660204 38490155
            38150100 37650046 37220028 36270003 35470029 34990085
            34640185 34410275 34740363 35080434 35300463 35850475 

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SPC Aug 19, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may continue to be accompanied by a risk for severe
wind and hail across parts of the Plains this evening.

...01Z Outlook Update...
East of the High Plains, thunderstorm activity appears generally in
the process of weakening in the presence of waning instability. 
Similar trends are expected with ongoing thunderstorm activity in
the vicinity of the northern Rockies, and near the Mogollon Rim of
Arizona into the mountains of New Mexico by around 03-04Z.

Across the south central High Plains, moderate boundary layer CAPE
may maintain convection now spreading southeast of the Raton Mesa
area, and activity near the Kansas/Colorado border area, through
this evening.  It  still appears possible that forcing for ascent
associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection could support
further convective development and upscale growth southeastward
across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity and adjacent portions
of New Mexico, southwestern Kansas and western Oklahoma.  Aided by
southerly nocturnal low-level jet strengthening up to 30-35 kts,
this could be accompanied a risk for at least localized severe wind
gusts and perhaps some hail into the overnight hours.

Near the surface trough across the central Dakotas into southern
Nebraska, scattered vigorous thunderstorm development is ongoing,
aided by a seasonably warm and fairly deeply mixed boundary layer
(temps still near 90, dew points in the lower/mid 60s) characterized
by moderately large CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg.  This
environment may remain conducive to the risk for locally strong to
severe convective gusts into the 03-04Z time frame.

..Kerr.. 08/19/2018

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