Storm Prediction Center Forecast


RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594

WW 594 SEVERE TSTM KS 180125Z - 180800Z
      
WW 0594 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 594
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
825 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Kansas

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 825 PM
  until 300 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A small but well-organized cluster of storms across
northwest Kansas early this evening will continue east-southeastward
with additional storms expected to develop near/ahead of it through
late evening. Large hail and locally damaging winds can initially be
expected with this activity, with a more certain potential for
damaging winds given the possibility of an expanding/organizing
linear cluster across central Kansas.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles south
southwest of Hill City KS to 35 miles south southeast of Manhattan
KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 590...WW 592...WW 593...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
29025.

...Guyer

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 593

WW 593 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 172315Z - 180600Z
      
WW 0593 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 593
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
615 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northwest Iowa
  Southwest Minnesota
  Northeast Nebraska
  Eastern South Dakota

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 615 PM
  until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Ongoing storms across south-central/northeast South Dakota
early this evening will continue eastward, with the possibility of
additional/more isolated supercell development ahead of an evolving
cluster of storms. Some tornado risk may exist for a time,
particularly through mid-evening across southeast South Dakota.
However, the overall most common risks should be large hail and
damaging winds, which should become more of a concern later this
evening as storm mergers occur and a more organized cluster/line
develops.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 130
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north
northeast of Worthington MN to 45 miles west southwest of Huron SD.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 590...WW 591...WW 592...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
28025.

...Guyer

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592

WW 592 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 172035Z - 180400Z
      
WW 0592 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 592
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Far eastern Colorado
  Northwest Kansas
  Far southwestern Nebraska

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
    mph possible
  Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms may develop off across
the tri-state area as high-based storms spread east from the Palmer
Divide in Colorado.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest
of Burlington CO to 55 miles southeast of Mccook NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 590...WW 591...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.

...Grams

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 590

WW 590 SEVERE TSTM SD 171920Z - 180200Z
      
WW 0590 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 590
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
220 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  South Dakota

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
  900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Initial storms over the Black Hills and northeast along a
front in north-central South Dakota will pose a threat for mainly
large hail. With time into the evening, one or more clusters is
anticipated with an increasing risk for severe wind gusts.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles south of Philip
SD to 35 miles north northeast of Aberdeen SD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.

...Grams

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594 Status Reports

WW 0594 Status Updates
      
WW 0594 Status Image

STATUS FOR WATCH 0594 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 593 Status Reports

WW 0593 Status Updates
      
WW 0593 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 593

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE 9V9
TO 15 WNW HON TO 10 NE ATY TO 5 NNW VVV TO 25 NNE VVV TO 35 NW
AXN.

..GLEASON..08/18/19

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...MPX...FGF...OAX...LBF...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 593 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

IAC035-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-180140-

IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CHEROKEE             IDA                 LYON                
O'BRIEN              OSCEOLA             PLYMOUTH            
SIOUX                WOODBURY            


MNC011-023-041-051-073-081-083-101-105-117-121-133-149-151-173-
180140-

MN 
.    MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BIG STONE            CHIPPEWA            DOUGLAS             
GRANT                LAC QUI PARLE       LINCOLN             
LYON                 MURRAY              NOBLES              
PIPESTONE            POPE                ROCK                
STEVENS              SWIFT               YELLOW MEDICINE     


NEC003-015-027-043-051-089-103-107-139-179-180140-
Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592 Status Reports

WW 0592 Status Updates
      
WW 0592 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 592

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S GLD TO
45 E GLD TO 20 SW MCK TO 20 SW MCK TO 30 E IML.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1775

..NAUSLAR..08/18/19

ATTN...WFO...GLD...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 592 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC039-063-065-109-137-153-179-193-180140-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DECATUR              GOVE                GRAHAM              
LOGAN                NORTON              RAWLINS             
SHERIDAN             THOMAS              


NEC087-145-180140-

NE 
.    NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HITCHCOCK            RED WILLOW          


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 591 Status Reports

WW 0591 Status Updates
      
WW 0591 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 591

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PIT TO
20 SW DUJ TO 25 ESE DUJ TO 10 N UNV TO 20 SW IPT TO 10 E IPT TO
25 NW AVP.

WW 591 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180000Z.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1774

..NAUSLAR..08/17/19

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CTP...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 591 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

PAC005-033-063-113-180000-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARMSTRONG            CLEARFIELD          INDIANA             
SULLIVAN             


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 590 Status Reports

WW 0590 Status Updates
      
WW 0590 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 590

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW 9V9
TO 9V9 TO 20 SW HON.

WW 590 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180200Z.

..GLEASON..08/18/19

ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 590 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

SDC017-085-180200-

SD 
.    SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BUFFALO              LYMAN               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more

SPC MD 1778

MD 1778 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN SD INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MN...FAR NORTHEASTERN NE...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN IA
MD 1778 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1778
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0826 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Areas affected...Portions of eastern SD into west-central and
southwestern MN...far northeastern NE...and far northwestern IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 593...

Valid 180126Z - 180300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 593
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe/damaging wind gusts will likely become an
increasing concern across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 593 this
evening. Relatively greater severe wind potential should exist
across southeastern SD and vicinity in the short term (next few
hours).

DISCUSSION...A line of storms has congealed along a cold front this
evening across eastern SD into parts of west-central MN. The
southern flank of this line across southeastern SD appears to be
more robust, as strong instability (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) is
present across this region. A 30-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet
is expected to strengthen over eastern NE into southeastern SD and
vicinity, which will likely maintain storm intensity through the
remainder of the evening. Strong inbound velocities have recently
been noted on the KFSD radar with storms approaching Sioux Falls SD,
with evidence of a rear inflow jet developing. A corridor of severe,
damaging winds with gusts of 60-75 mph appears increasingly likely
across southeastern SD and vicinity. Isolated large hail may also
occur with supercells embedded within the line. Farther north,
isolated damaging winds will remain possible into
west-central/southwestern MN, but instability does decrease with
northward extent across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 593.

..Gleason.. 08/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

LAT...LON   43049943 44029904 44439841 44899711 45399623 46089587
            46069491 44969486 43749499 42699538 42359628 42379754
            42709879 43049943 

Read more

SPC MD 1777

MD 1777 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA
MD 1777 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1777
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle...northwest Texas...western
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 180015Z - 180245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms have developed across the eastern Texas Panhandle,
Texas Rolling Plains, and western Oklahoma. Severe wind will be the
main threat, but a watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures warmed into the low 100s F with dewpoints
in the mid 50s to 60s F this afternoon/evening across the southern
Plains. A surface pressure trough extending southward through the
Texas Panhandle along with deep boundary layer mixing helped
initiate storms during the last hour or so. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
and effective bulk shear of 25-40 knots should support some
transient supercellular development. Given the steep low-level lapse
rates and dry sub-cloud layer, severe wind appears to be the main
threat with severe wind recently reportedin Altus and Dickens
County, Texas. Large hail is also possible with 1" hail recently
reported in Beckham County, Oklahoma. However, warm mid-level
temperatures and marginal shear/instability may mitigate hail
growth. 

Storms may grow upscale and continue moving eastward after sunset as
the low-level jet strengthens across the area. However, the overall
severe threat should remain marginal and relatively isolated, thus a
watch issuance is unlikely.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 08/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33589897 33019990 33090064 33930151 34830107 35440074
            36550003 36699907 36449832 36239799 35689771 35099773
            34499805 34049844 33589897 

Read more

SPC MD 1776

MD 1776 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NE
MD 1776 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1776
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Areas affected...Portions of western/central NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 180000Z - 180200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A very isolated severe threat may exist this evening, with
large hail and strong/gusty winds possible. However, watch issuance
appears unlikely at this time, mainly due to the isolated nature of
the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed early this
evening across the NE Panhandle ahead of a southward-moving cold
front. The boundary layer across this region is very well mixed,
with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to upper 50s and
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s ahead of the front. As these
storms move eastward over the next couple of hours, they should
encounter greater low-level moisture and gradually increasing
instability. There appears to be some potential for this activity to
strengthen as it moves eastward across western/central NE as a
southerly low-level jet strengthens later this evening mainly over
central into eastern NE. A belt of 40-50 kt mid-level westerly winds
has overspread this region, which is contributing to similar values
of effective bulk shear. Supercells would conditionally be possible
given the expected instability/shear parameter space, but overall
convective coverage remains highly uncertain through this evening.
If storms strengthen, then both large hail and strong/gusty winds
would be possible. Regardless, watch issuance appears unlikely at
this time, mainly due to the expected isolated nature of the severe
threat.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 08/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   42410267 42670167 42659975 42209932 41029930 40970017
            40990185 41280233 42080264 42410267 

Read more

SPC Aug 18, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SD...FAR SOUTHWEST MN...AND FAR NORTHWEST IA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as
the primary threats are expected tonight across a large portion of
the northern to central Great Plains into the Midwest.

...01Z Update...

...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to persist along
southern portions cold front currently extending from north-central
MN southwestward into the NE Panhandle. Air mass ahead of the cold
front is characterized by very moist low-levels (i.e. surface
dewpoints in the 70s across eastern SD), steep mid-level lapse
rates, and very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg). Given
the linear forcing, a linear storm mode remains favored with strong
wind gusts as the primary severe threat. Additionally, storm cluster
across south-central SD has recently shown a surge in forward
motion, suggesting more forward-propagation off the front may be
occurring.

Farther south (across northern KS and far southern NE), a discrete
storm continues to progress eastward across Sheridan County.
Potential exists for this storm become more organized and strengthen
as it continues eastward into more favorable low-level moisture and
a strengthening low-level jet. Additionally, overall storm coverage
is expected to increase ahead of this storm as the low-level jet
increases. 

...Far Northwest TX....Southwest/South-Central OK...
Isolated strong wind gusts remain possible across the region as
cluster of storms currently moving across southwest OK and far
northwest TX continues eastward. More information about this area is
available in MCD 1777.

..Mosier.. 08/18/2019

Read more