Storm Prediction Center Forecast


RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 19 10:28:02 UTC 2020

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 19 10:28:02 UTC 2020.


SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Jan 19 10:28:02 UTC 2020

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 19 10:28:02 UTC 2020.


SPC Jan 19, 2020 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Showers and a thunderstorm or two may affect south Florida and the
Keys, as well as the Pacific Northwest Coastal areas.

...Discussion...
As complex/large-scale troughing continues to evolve/shift gradually
eastward across the eastern half of the country, a cold front --
already well offshore over the western Atlantic -- will continue
shifting southward and eventually out of south Florida and the Keys.
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two -- mainly during the day
on Monday -- will be possible, with any onshore lightning risk
diminishing with time as the front vacates southward.

Farther west, cold high pressure at the surface will prevail through
the period east of the Rockies, as upper ridging advances eastward.

Meanwhile, a northeastern Pacific upper low is expected to continue
eastward and begin nearing the coast early Tuesday morning.  As
steeper lapse rates associated with the system progress toward
coastal areas, showers -- and possibly occasional/embedded lightning
-- will likely evolve across the Pacific Northwest Coast, and the
Olympics/Cascades.

Elsewhere, deep moist convection is not expected.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:     <5%     - None
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Goss.. 01/19/2020

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SPC Jan 19, 2020 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Showers, and possibly a few lightning flashes, may affect portions
of the Pacific Northwest, especially early in the period on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
A relatively progressive upper pattern is anticipated for Day 3, as
an upper low just off the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest Coasts
at the start of the period shift inland, though weakening with time.
Meanwhile, a second low/trough is expected to gradually cross the
southeastern states, moving offshore overnight.

With cold/stable high pressure prevailing over the eastern half of
the country, the only impetus for deep moist convective development
appears to the decaying system moving inland over the Northwest. 
Along with a few showers across the area, mainly early in the period
over the higher terrain, a few lightning flashes cannot be ruled
out.  Otherwise, thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
through the period.

..Goss.. 01/19/2020

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SPC Jan 19, 2020 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Latest runs of the global models continue to show substantial
differences with respect to the evolution of a short-wave trough
moving across the northwestern U.S. at the start of the period
(Wednesday/Day 4), and any possible interactions with
southern-stream disturbances whose timing and location are likewise
depicted differently amongst the different models.

These evolving/increasing differences aloft amongst the models
through the forecast period also manifest in fairly drastic
differences in positioning and strength of the surface features.  As
such, prospects for any northward theta-e advection remain
uncertain, despite likelihood of a surface system of sorts crossing
the central and eastern U.S. during the period.  As expected,
greatest convective potential would likely reside over the
southeastern quarter of the CONUS, given its proximity to higher
theta-e Gulf air.  However, substantial differences in timing and
location of the surface features yield minimal confidence with
respect to offering a reasonable assessment of possible convective
activity.

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A cold front will continue to push offshore from the southeastern
and eastern US. An arctic airmass will move southward into the
northern and central Plains by Monday morning. This stout surface
high pressure will produce dry, offshore flow across southern
California. While meteorological conditions would normally favor
fire spread, fuel conditions are not similarly favorable for fire
weather concerns. Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool/cold temperatures
and recent precipitation will also suppress wildfire potential.

..Wendt.. 01/19/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
With a surface anticyclone centered within the Midwest, cool/cold
temperatures as well as relatively light surface winds are expected
across much of the CONUS on D2/Monday. The surface pattern will
favor offshore flow along the Florida Peninsula, however. Within
this regime, a few areas of RH below 40% are possible during the
afternoon. With precipitation expected on Sunday and ERCs near
normal, fuel availability will likely be an issue. Furthermore,
surface winds will more commonly be below 15 mph leading to, at
most, patchy elevated conditions.

..Wendt.. 01/19/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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