Storm Prediction Center Forecast


RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 10 22:21:03 UTC 2019

No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 10 22:21:03 UTC 2019.


SPC MD 2192

MD 2192 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE BETWEEN CLEVELAND AND BUFFALO
MD 2192 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 2192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Areas affected...Southern shore of Lake Erie between Cleveland and
Buffalo

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 101921Z - 102315Z

SUMMARY...Isolated, brief snow squalls are possible between
Cleveland and Buffalo along the southern shore of Lake Erie this
afternoon into the evening.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough is moving over the Great Lakes
with the leading edge currently stretching across the eastern Great
Lakes. Shallow instability up to around 750-700 mb stretching from
Lower Michigan to Upstate New York is producing convective snow
bands across the region. Gusty winds of 20-35 mph are possible with
these snow bands, which could result in snow squalls this afternoon
into the evening.

..Nauslar/Hart.. 12/10/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...

LAT...LON   41997981 41768066 41608126 41618144 41698148 41918109
            42108037 42387973 42527942 42747899 42817885 42817870
            42757861 42577850 42327877 42247895 42117931 41997981 

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SPC Dec 10, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will remain possible today across parts of the
southeast United States. No severe storms are expected.

...20Z Update...
A cold front continues to move southward over the northern Gulf of
Mexico and the Southeast this afternoon. Thunderstorm potential
through the remainder of today and tonight will likely be confined
to locations near/ahead of the front, as weak instability becomes
increasingly negligible behind it. The general thunderstorm area
across the Southeast has been adjusted to account for these trends.

..Gleason.. 12/10/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019/

...Southeast States...
An upper trough is moving eastward across TX today, with a strong
midlevel jet extending from east TX across the Gulf Coast states.  A
combination of large-scale forcing for ascent, marginal elevated
CAPE values, and ample midlevel moisture will continue to pose a
risk of widespread showers today and tonight - mainly along and
behind a surface cold front sagging across the southeast states. 
Coverage of thunderstorms will likely be limited, but a few
lightning strikes are possible across a relatively broad area.

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

No changes to the ongoing forecast.

..Wendt.. 12/10/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019/

...Synopsis...
As a large-scale trough moves offshore into the Atlantic, surface
high pressure and cooler temperatures will dominate the surface
pattern across the eastern CONUS Day 2/Wednesday. Meanwhile, the
mid-level trough moving ashore in California on Day 1 will approach
the central CONUS Day 2, promoting surface low-pressure development
across the central Plains, where warmer temperatures and 15+ mph
sustained southerly surface winds are expected. Nonetheless, given
marginal fuels, and with RH expected to remain above elevated
criteria, no highlights for wildfire-spread concerns were made.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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