Storm Prediction Center Forecast


RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 21 10:43:02 UTC 2019

No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 21 10:43:02 UTC 2019.


SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Apr 21 10:43:02 UTC 2019

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 21 10:43:02 UTC 2019.


SPC Apr 21, 2019 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with an isolated wind damage and hail
threat are expected to develop across parts of Texas on Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains...
An upper-level low will move southeastward from the Desert Southwest
into northern Mexico on Tuesday. Southwest mid-level flow will
remain over the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to move southeastward across central and northeast Texas.
The models suggest that surface-based thunderstorms will develop
along the boundary during the afternoon and evening. NAM and GFS
forecast soundings early Tuesday evening in the Texas Hill Country
suggest that moderate instability and deep-layer shear will be in
place. For this reason, a severe threat is expected to develop along
the front during the late afternoon and early evening. However,
confidence in the forecast front position is not great enough to
issue a slight risk at this time.

..Broyles.. 04/21/2019

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SPC Apr 21, 2019 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
On Wednesday, the medium-range models move an upper-level low
east-northeastward into west Texas as a mid-level jet rounds the
base of the trough. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast
across the Texas Coastal Plains where moderate instability should be
in place by afternoon. This combined with moderate to strong
deep-layer shear, associated with the mid-level jet, will make
severe thunderstorm development possible in south-central and
southeast Texas. For this outlook, the 15 percent contour in this
area has been maintained for Wednesday.

On Thursday, the models including the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET and Canadian
are in reasonable agreement, moving the upper-level low eastward
into the Arklatex. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass is forecast
across the lower Mississippi Valley where a potential for severe
storms will exist. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be on
the weak side which introduces too much uncertainty to introduce a
slight risk at this time.

...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
The models move the upper-level system eastward into the eastern
Gulf Coast states on Friday but deamplify the wave some. A moist and
unstable airmass may be in place ahead of the system but the models
differ on the timing of the upper-level trough and magnitude of
instability. For this reason, predictability is too low on Friday
for a severe threat area.

For Saturday and Sunday, the models diverge sharply in their
solutions. There appears to be potential for moisture return into
the Great Plains but again, the models show large differences. For
this reason, will maintain predictability too low for late in the
period.

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough located over the lower Great Basin will slowly
migrate southward throughout the forecast period.  Mid-level flow
along the southern periphery of this system will be marginally
enhanced, allowing persistent west-southwesterly winds of 35-45 kt
to overspread much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains.
At the surface, lee cyclogenesis will occur along the central High
Plains, with an area of low pressure developing in western Kansas by
mid-day and strengthening throughout the afternoon. A dryline will
extend south of the low and propagate eastward throughout the
afternoon.

...Southwest into the southern High Plains...
Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions will develop west of
the dryline across portions West Texas, southern and northeastern
New Mexico and far southeastern Arizona. During the afternoon,
sustained winds of 15-25 mph will develop, gusting to 35 mph, while
RH values fall into the teens and single digits over a widespread
area. A minor expansion was made to the elevated area across
portions of the Texas Panhandle to account for a more eastward
progression of the dryline than indicated previously in the
guidance. Elsewhere, the elevated and critical areas have been
maintained and confined based on limited fuel receptiveness and
availability.

..Karstens.. 04/21/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough located over the Desert Southwest will become
quasi-stationary and more vertically stacked throughout the forecast
period. Once again, flow aloft will be marginally enhanced but
reside mostly outside of the CONUS. However some enhanced
southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the southernmost
portions of the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front
will sag southward across the central High Plains, impinging upon
portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Meanwhile, a remnant
dryline will extend south across portions of West Texas.

...Southern New Mexico...
Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to develop across a
small region of southern New Mexico, where fuels remain marginally
receptive. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph, and
minimum RH values approaching the teens and single digits should
develop for at least a few hours during the afternoon.

..Karstens.. 04/21/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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